BTC, ETH and XRP this week

Entry zone

$81,146 to $81,500

Stop

$82,045

Targets

$80,405 then $79,732

Risk to reward

1:2.2

Keep the unfilled limit retest of broken 81146.4 support through the 81500 daily reference: daily swings form a mixed range, but 4h lower highs and lower lows and the fully retraced latest upward leg still support resistance selling; price below the zone does not invalidate a future retest. The retained stop has ample entry-to-stop distance relative to 1h ATR 211.657143 but insufficient noise clearance above the 82035.3 swing, reducing quality; 80888.9 and 80622 are hurdles before the 80404.6 range floor and 79732.3 daily low. Crowded longs favor the short, but taker buy/sell 1.3113 and 4h RSI 24.9 increase bounce risk; the matching range shorts against the 4h move record provides no score uplift, and an empty release calendar does not establish that event risk is absent. Note: current price has already moved below the short entry zone, so this only works on a retest of the zone.

Wrong if: A trade at 82045.1 exits the position because recovery through the recent range high invalidates the resistance-retest thesis.

Entry zone

$80,462 to $80,574

Stop

$79,732

Targets

$81,500 then $82,035

Risk to reward

1:1.9

Keep the prospective support-bounce limit entry above the 80404.6 range floor and 80344.8 daily swing: daily structure remains a mixed range, while the bearish 4h structure makes this explicitly counter-trend, despite RSI 24.9 and buyer-favored taker flow. The unchanged stop provides substantial room relative to 1h ATR 211.657143 below local support, although sitting directly on the deeper 79732.3 daily low is a weakness; 80622, 80888.9 and 81146.4 are hurdles before 81500 and the recent 82035.3 high, with both targets above current price. The positive supplied 4h move makes range longs with the 4h move the matching track-record line, with average R -0.40 versus -0.10 overall and 55% stopped before TP1, requiring a score below 70; crowded longs add caution, and the ambiguous Elliott counts are not the basis for this local range trade. Guardrail: matches 'range longs with the 4h move' (avg -0.40R, stopped before TP1 55%, n 11), so this is a watch-only idea.

Wrong if: Trading down to 79732.3 invalidates the range-floor recovery thesis and exits the position without adding risk.

Entry zone

$2,414 to $2,419

Stop

$2,441

Targets

$2,359 then $2,351

Risk to reward

1:2.6

Keep the existing limit-retest setup unchanged: its zone surrounds the current 2413.17 range high, 2417.27 swing high and 4h moving-average resistance, while the 2440.88 stop sits beyond that immediate cluster with room relative to the 8.402857 hourly ATR. Daily and 4h structure point down, and taker ratios of 0.8688 and 0.8403 support rejection; 2392.14, 2389.47 and 2370.74 remain intervening hurdles before the retained support targets, both below current price, so this is a prospective retest rather than a fresh short at spot. The matching 'range shorts with the 4h move' record provides no score uplift, and oversold 4h RSI of 26.1 plus elevated implied volatility limit conviction; the supplied calendar lists no release, but does not establish that event risk is absent.

Wrong if: A move to 2440.88 invalidates the planned rejection of the 2413.56–2419.21 resistance cluster.

Entry zone

$2,351 to $2,359

Stop

$2,327

Targets

$2,388 then $2,417

Risk to reward

1:2.2

Keep the support-bounce setup unchanged because the 2350.69 range floor and 2359.02 swing low remain intact: the stop is beyond this traded support cluster with room relative to hourly ATR, although its placement directly at the deeper 2327.32 support remains a weakness. Daily and 4h lower highs and lower lows make this a counter-trend range trade, not bullish continuation; 2370.74 and 2374.99 are initial hurdles, 2387.51 is a carried-over target rather than a newly verified swing, and the final 2417.27 objective reaches the recent high above current price. The matching 'range longs against the 4h move' record has average R of -0.24 and 45% stopped before TP1, offering no positive evidence without meeting the mandatory penalty threshold; oversold 4h RSI supports tactical bounce potential, but seller-favored flow, crowded longs, ETF outflows and elevated volatility keep quality low.

Wrong if: A move to 2327.32 invalidates this tactical defense of the 2350.69–2359.02 support cluster.

Entry zone

$1.2948 to $1.2981

Stop

$1.3139

Targets

$1.2687 then $1.2553

Risk to reward

1:2.3

Keep the existing levels as a prospective retest of the broken 1.2942 shelf: this is explicitly a deep, lower-quality reload above the latest bearish impulse's 1.28858 retracement boundary, with the stop beyond 1.3103 structure and room relative to hourly ATR of 0.006271. The daily chart remains a heavily retraced range, whereas the latest 4h bullish leg has broken and the bearish main leg remains intact; this local structural trade does not rely on an Elliott count, and 1.2857 and 1.2726 are hurdles before the retained swing-low targets. Crowded longs support the short case, but 4h RSI of 22, balanced market taker flow versus buyer-favored Bentley flow, and stable OI lower conviction; the latest positive 4h move makes this an against-move continuation short with no matching adverse track-record pattern, and the supplied calendar lists no high-impact release. Note: current price has already moved below the short entry zone, so this only works on a retest of the zone.

Wrong if: Trading through 1.31391 invalidates the local impulse-retracement short, even if the broader 4h downtrend survives.

Entry zone

$1.2687 to $1.2726

Stop

$1.2457

Targets

$1.3085 then $1.3238

Risk to reward

1:2.1

Retain the support entry at the listed 1.2687 swing low and 1.2726 range floor, with the existing stop below the 1.2553 boundary and ample hourly ATR room; the daily structure remains a range, but this bounce opposes the broken 4h advance and intact bearish main leg rather than relying on an Elliott count. The retained 1.3085 daily swing level is TP1 after hurdles at 1.2857, 1.2919 and 1.2942, but the inherited 1.3238 final target is less convincing today because the current 1.316 range high and 1.3212 swing resistance stand before it, materially lowering the setup's quality. Range longs with the latest positive 4h move returned -0.40 average R with 55% stopped before TP1 across 11 trades, versus the -0.10 baseline, requiring a penalty; RSI of 22 supports bounce potential, not confirmation, while crowded longs remain a headwind and no high-impact release is listed. Guardrail: matches 'range longs with the 4h move' (avg -0.40R, stopped before TP1 55%, n 11), so this is a watch-only idea.

Wrong if: Trading to 1.2457 invalidates the support-bounce trade and reaches the start of the daily main bullish leg.